Donald Trump might seem arrogant and clueless, but his anti-free trade stance strikes a chord with millions of working class Americans.
The March 10 presidential prop bets show Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton as massive favorites to take their parties’ nominations, after six weeks of primaries and caucuses. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is now a -190 favorite to win the U.S. presidential election in November 2016. Businessman and reality TV star Donald Trump has the second best odds. His odds to win the presidency sit at +200.
Hillary Clinton Profile
Hillary Clinton, who served 8 years as the first lady of the United States, was the odds-on favorite to win the Democratic Party’s nomination from the beginning. She had served 6 years as a U.S. Senator from the State of New York. In her 2008 run for the nomination, she lost a close and hard-fought campaign to future President Barack Obama. Despite bitterness on the campaign trail, she served as Obama’s Secretary of State in the first term of his presidency.
She lived the last 3+ years as a private citizen, though she and husband Bill Clinton were preparing her for another run at the Democratic nomination. In 2008, the Clintons had a neck-and-neck electoral campaign with Barack Obama through the primary season, collecting almost as many state delegates. Barack Obama won the superdelegate count — cast by party insiders — by a large margin. Thus, Bill and Hillary Clinton spent the past several years collecting superdelegate pledges, assuring it would take a drubbing at the polls for Hillary to lose the nomination this time.
Senator Bernie Sanders
Her only real competition in 2016 is 74-year old Independent senator from the state of Vermont, Bernie Sanders. Sen. Sanders has run an insurgency campaign based on a true socialist agenda, claiming he would raise taxes on the riches to the 80% level they were in the 1950s.
Despite the contention that a socialist could never win the presidency in the center-right United States political system, Sanders has polled well. Like Clinton in 2008, he is winning almost as many at-large delegates, while losing badly in the superdelegate count. For that reason (and his socialist agenda), his odds of winning the presidency are only +1000 on Bovada.
Donald Trump a Prohibitive Favorite
On the Republican side, anyone betting on Donald Trump in June 2015 would have amazing odds of winning a huge bet right now. Despite raising concerns among Democrats, Republicans, and international world leaders, Trump appears poised to win the Republican Party’s nomination for president.
Next Tuesday’s primaries include 5 states, including the pivotal states of Florida and Ohio. Those two states not only are two of the most important battleground states every four years in the general election, but they are the home states of two GOP candidates, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.
Both states are seen as a last stand by those candidates, but Donald Trump is leading in the polls. Despite his lead, most votes have shown Trump doing a little worse than the pre-vote polls. In Ohio, he faces a popular sitting governor who has seen his numbers going up in recent weeks. Most believe John Kasich has a close-to-even money chance of winning Ohio, which is one reason he is a +2500 candidate on Bovada.
Marco Rubio Losing Ground
In Florida, Marco Rubio appears to be fading. Pollsters believe he might be as much as 20% behind Donald Trump in the state, though Rubio insists his internal polling shows better than that. He also insists he’ll win his home state. Republican Party elite have been pouring money into anti-Trump advertisements in Florida, hoping to make a last-ditch stand against a man they see as dangerous and unstable — and possibly a liberal-in-disguise.
Several pundits have told Marco Rubio to get out of the race before Florida, because he could damage his political standing for future years, if he loses his own state. Donald Trump has told him to do the same, though it’s an axiom that you should not take advice when offered by your political opponents. Rubio made a mistake getting into the gutter with Donald Trump, and his campaign has suffered since he did. The feeling is his campaign is in its twilight, which is why his odds sit at +5000.
Florida and Ohio Primaries
Florida and Ohio are particularly pivotal, because they are the first of the winner-take-all states. Whoever wins in Florida takes 99 delegates, while whoever wins Ohio takes 66 delegates. Donald Trump has said that the race will be over if he wins both states — perhaps already gearing up for the 1-on-1 showdown with his next-nearest opponent, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.
Ted Cruz is only 99 delegates behind Donald Trump, as he sits at 359 to Trump’s 458. That leaves Sen. Cruz within striking distance, though the conventional logic is the other candidates would have to get out of the race and the Washington political establishment would have to vote for him in order to forestall a Trump nomination. For that reason, Ted Cruz remains a +1200 bet on Bovada.
Thus, Cruz faces a dilemma. He can hope for Kasich and Rubio to win their states, thus 165 delegates from Donald Trump. Or he can hope they lose, driving both men out of the race. Either way, he faces an uphill climb. His best bet might be to see one man win and another lose, providing him with a chance to peel off one candidate’s supporters, while staying with sight of Trump in the delegate count.
Donald Trump’s Appeal
Donald Trump’s surge has been the story of the year in the United States — and perhaps the world. People outside the USA see him as a dangerous reactionary — an old-style nationalist. People inside the United States see him either as a narcissistic buffoon and vulgarian, or the potential savior of the American dream.
Non-Americans might wonder at Trump’s appeal. For 20 years, Americans have been told by their politicans that free trade and globalism was good for the country. That meant millions of industrial jobs were shipped to China. While free trade has been good for the bottom line of US corporations and it has helped keep the prices of Wal-Mart products low, it has seen the erosion of the American middle class.
The Republican Base Is Angry
Meanwhile, social conversatives and working class white Americans in the Republican Party have been those most concerned about changes in American society. The Republican Party’s leadership have made promises to social conservatives to fight the culture war, but have not fought very hard once elections were over. They also implied they would fight globalist agenda and progressive politics, while winning few battles on that front.
It has created a growing rage among millions of Americans, as they see politicians betraying their word. Donald Trump has exploited anger and frustration to build a movement, pushing the right buttons with a vast collection of people: Movement Conservatives, evangelical Christians, nativists, and underemployed workers. Some revere Trump, while others hold their nose and vote for him, but they all share a dislike of Washington insiders and traditional politicians.
Who Will Be the Next U.S. President?
The question of who the next U.S. president will be is hard to guess. The convention logic is Hillary Clinton wins the election, and perhaps in a landslide. Yet Donald Trump has surprised every step of the way in 2015-2016, and he has the wind at his back. There are reasons to think he would present a tough challenge for Hillary Clinton.
The Case against Hillary Clinton
One, Hillary Clinton has high negatives. She was hated by the Republican Party during her years as the first lady, and has been hated by them ever since. During the Monica Lewinsky scandal, Hillary Clinton referred to the “vast right-wing conspiracy”. Republicans tend to like traditions, and Hillary upends many traditional ideas of a woman’s place in the world to these people. She was a lawyer, had a career of her own, and was liberal.
Two, many moderates and Independants see Hillary as a liar. The email scandal is troubling to many, even though most (except on the right) think it won’t become a legal issue. They feel like Bill and Hillary had a perspicacious side, even if they voted for them in the past.
Three, Hillary Clinton does not encourage enthusiasm, even among Democrats. As she said the other day: she is not a natural politician, like Bill Clinton or Barack Obama. People can respect her, but seldom are thrilled by her speeches. Despite the scandals, the Clintons occupy the dead center of American political thought. Many Democrats of a more progressive stripe see the Clintons as moderate Republicans in their policies. Many can’t forget NAFTA and the WTO initiatives were Clinton projects.
The Case for Donald Trump
Meanwhile, Donald Trump encourages a lot of enthusiasm. In fact, he encourages hero worship. The reason Trump’s opponent cannot pin him down on the issues is his core followers are not interested in the policies, per se. He has convinced them that he is the conquering hero, the savior figure who is going to go to Washington DC and change the culture. He’ll knock heads together, make both sides see sense, and make America great again. He’s a strong man, but a dealmaker. In other words, Trump will always know the right move.
To these people, they’ve been betrayed by the politicians, so they want a non-politician to fix the mess. It does not occur to them that a non-politician can lie to them, too. It seems lost that Donald Trump has made promises so large that he might not be able to accomplish them.
He wants to build a 50-foot wall on the US border with Mexico and make the Mexican government pay for it. He wants to round up 11 million illegal immigrants, but hasn’t said what kind of a police force he’ll build to accomplish that goal. He’s said he’ll raise a 45% tariff on Chinese imports, but hasn’t said what he’ll do when everything at Wal-Mart is increase 45% in price.
The Case against Donald Trump
Of course, many Americans see these contradictions. The one saving grace of Hillary Clinton is she’ll face the one opponent who has higher negative ratings than herself. Thus, you have two flawed candidates with some of the highest negatives in the history of US politics. The 2016 US election is likely to have the biggest voter turnout in history.
In most elections, if the turnout is large, then the Democrats have the advantage. Trump is likely to bring millions of new voters out to vote for him, but he might bring an equal number out to vote against him. The conventional wisdom is Hillary either wins by a narrow margin, or she wins by a landslide.
Conclusion
But the thought remains in the back of the mind: Hillary Clinton is a globalist and free trader, and most Americans will not be convinced her policies are good for them. Good for the world, perhaps…but not good for Americans. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is going to running against free trade, anti-Americanism, and internationalism. He is going to be a force to reckon with, especially with an opponent on the other side with high negatives, little enthusiasm, and flawed policies.
