Krista Jenkins of PublicMind said the proponents of North Jersey casinos face an “uphill battle”.
A Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll shows that the North Jersey casino referendum set for November faces defeat. The North Jersey casino referendum is a statewide vote to see whether voters support ending Atlantic City’s nearly 4-decade monopoly on casino gambling in New Jersey.
The poll indicated that only 35% of voters were in favor of building a casino each in two North Jersey counties. No specific counties were discussed in the questioning, though speculation has the casinos in the Meadowlands and in Jersey City. A full 57% of those polled said they were against North Jersey casinos.
42% Support Expansion Beyond AC
A second poll conducted which stipulated the ending of the casino monopoly for Atlantic City in lieu of unspecified areas of the state received 42% support. The second option indicates a voting proposition with a great deal more chance of succeeding, because the percentage of the population which would have to change their minds is only 8% or so. With the election still 4 months away, that is a realistic possibility.
The “No North Jersey Casinos” Coalition
Debra DiLorenzo, who is the chairwoman of No North Jersey Casinos Coalition, said that she anticipates a significant campaign against North Jersey casinos to get underway after Labor Day. DiLorenzo, who is also the head of the Chamber of Commerce Southern New Jersey, said she could not estimate the amount of cash would be raised to fund anti-expansion advertisements.
When asked about the will to oppose the North Jersey initiative, Mrs. DiLorenzo said, “I would categorize it as formidable. I don’t know how many million will be raised…there’s a lot of entities in the mix that will fund it. We look at his public question as the most important issue for southern New Jersey in the past 40 years.”
Jeffrey Brindle’s Prediction
Jeffrey Brindle, the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission’s Executive Director, said he expected $80 million to $100 million to be spent on the casino referendum and two other ballot initiatives this year. It is unknown how much gaming companies will spend on pro-expansion ads, because the companies allowed to apply for licenses are all Atlantic City gaming operators. They would be cannibalizing their own business, though the lure of New York City’s gaming population is going to be an incentive to expand.
The No North Jersey Casinos Coalition consists of more than 300 companies, public officials, and prominent citizens who oppose a North Jersey casino expansion. Some are South Jersey proponents who do not want to see Atlantic City lose its casino monopoly. Others are North Jersey residents who believe casinos would cause a higher incidence of traffic jams, environmental damage, and social problems for their regions.
Those invested in the Boardwalk have argued a rival center of casino gaming in the state would be the death knell of Atlantic City. Mark Giannantonio, the president of Resorts Casino, said that North Jersey casinos would mean the loss of up to 5 casinos in Atlantic City (8 exist). Even accounting for the hyperbole common with highly-charged political and economic decisions, it is hard to see the 8 casinos staying in business, if competition were introduced in the north end of the state.
Fitch Ratings Estimates
Disinterested observers have been only slightly less pessimistic. Fitch Ratings said in June 2016 that as many as 4 Atlantic City casinos could close, if the North Jersey casino referendum passed. Fitch Ratings wrote that the “properties most susceptible to cannibalization include Trump Taj Mahal, Resorts Casino, and Golden Nugget.”
In 2014, 4 Atlantic City casinos closed. A fifth casino, Trump Taj Mahal, entered bankrutpcy and was saved from closure only by the last-minute intervention of Carl Icahn. Others are just emerging from financial difficulty, so it is no stretch to say additional competition inside the state would be a disaster.
Krista Jenkins on the Poll
Krista Jenkins, the director of the PublicMind research, said that the poll reinforced what had been a fairly consistent trend since the initiative was first put on the ballot. Jenkins said, “Favorable attitudes toward expansion have never been part of the landscape. This suggests the supporters of this amendment will continue to experience an uphill battle convincing voters that casinos beyond Atlantic City are a worthwhile investment in local economies.“
