Cam Newton (+500) and Aaron Rodgers (+700) have the best odds on Betonline.
With NFL training camps set to open in the next week, Las Vegas sportsbooks have released odds for who will be the 2016 NFL MVP for the regular season. The betting odds reflect the wider opinions of NFL fandom, but it contains some surprises.
According to BetOnline’s odds, Cam Newton is the favorite to repeat at the NFL MVP with +500 odds. The moneyline odds make sense, given Cam Newton’s tremendous skill set and his leadership of a 15-1 team which had a chance to win the Super Bowl with 5 minutes left in the NFL’s world title game.
Cam Newton’s MVP Changes
It will be hard for Newton to repeat as the MVP. Part of a Most Valuable Player award has to do with expectations. Michael Jordan was known to be the best NBA player throughout the 1990s, yet in the Nineties, he only won MPVs in 1991, 1992, 1996, and 1998. In most sports, such awards grade on a curve.
The Carolina Panthers were a playoff team in 2014, but it was a huge surprise to see them vault to a 15-1 record in 2015. People are going to expect Carolina to be good in 2016, so unless the team matches or exceeds its record or Cam Newton has otherwordly play, he is not likely to win the award.
Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger
Aaron Rodgers has +700 odds. That makes sense, given that the Packers’ offense was disappointing by Green Bay’s standards last year. Also, Rodgers is still in the prime of his career. With Jordy Nelson returning from the IR and Eddie Lacy slimmed down 20 pounds, the Packers look like they might be ready to regain form. If so, the change will be notable.
Ben Roethiberger also has +700 odds. Roethlisger is still a force and he also has the league’s best pure receiver, Antonio Brown. Yet Roethlisberger is older now and he has taken a lot of shots. The Steelers also face a rebuilding defense and the 4-game suspension of Le’Veon Bell.
Odds on Wilson, Palmer, and Luck
Andrew Luck (+800), Russell Wilson (+900), and Carson Palmer (+1000) are the next-ranked betting options. Russell Wilson traditionally has been hamstrung by the conservative offense his team ran, with Marshawn Lynch and a great defense dictating fewer passes. That might not be the case in 2016, as Lynch is retired and the defense not quite as dominant. Indications were Wilson was throwing more often last year, especially to breakout receiver Doug Baldwin.
Carson Palmer has many weapons and a veteran team around him, but he is going to have to live down his playoff performances last season. His regular season numbers were impressive, so a (kind of) cumulative MVP award might happen, if he puts together a superior year.
Andrew Luck is an intriguing option. Luck missed most of last year with injuries and the Colts were a marginal team. Two years ago, Andrew Luck stepped into the role of an elite quarterback, having better numbers than Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Aaron Rodgers. This year, the offense has continued to build a strong receiving core. If Luck steps into his 2014 role again, he is the player down the list somewhat with the best chance to have the best QB numbers.
Adrian Peterson and Tom Brady
Adrian Peterson, the 2012 NFL MVP, has odds at +1200. Adrian Peterson is a physical marvel, but I would not bet on a 30-year old running back recapturing their form of 4 years ago.
Tom Brady also sits at +1200. Given his 4-game suspension, it would be hard to imagine Tom Brady winning the award. If the Patriots opened the season at 1-3 or 0-4 and Brady led them to the playoffs with a strong showing, he might win. I don’t expect the Patriots to do that badly in the first four weeks, though.
Le’Veon Bell, JJ Watt, and Gronk
Le’Veon Bell and J.J. Watt both sit at +2500. Neither is a good bet. Le’Veon Bell has the aforementioned 4-game suspension. JJ Watt just underwent back surgery. Back surgery is a serious situation. While Watt is likely to recover, back and neck injuries sometimes can linger. Too many factors are against JJ Watt.
Rob Gronkowski is a similar +2500. If the Patriots went 4-0 when Tom Brady was suspended and Gronk had huge numbers all year, especially in those games, he might get that talk. Tight ends are not MVP candidates, tough.
Tony Romo and Drew Brees
Tony Romo (+2000) and Drew Brees (+2500) are both decent bets. Romo’s Dallas Cowboys were 12-4 in 2014, but only 4-12 in 2015. People saw the value of Romo in that time, as he was worth 8 games. If he takes the Cowboys on an 8-game improvement, he might win the MVP role. The inclusion of Ezekiel Elliot gives him another weapon.
Drew Brees is even more intriguing, because of the price. Drew Brees and the Saints have shown decline over the past 2 seasons. Still, the Saints were in salary cap Hell two years ago. They had to dump a lot of talent just to get under the cap. Now, that is washed out of the system and the Saints should be able to compete better. Whether Brees has the remaining skills and energy remains to be seen, but he’s done it before and is likely to carry the offense.
Dark Horse Candidate: Blake Bortles
Blake Bortles sits at +3300. He’s been on an awful team for years and the Jaguars only improved in the standings a bit last year. If I were picking someone low down the list, I’d pick Bortles.
In a fantasy football season, Blake Bortles had better numbers than Aaron Rodgers last year. He has solid weapons in Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Julius Thomas. All should improve from 2015, either due to injury or experience. Chris Ivory came aboard as the #1 runner and TJ Yeldon should improve. IF the Jags play better, they should eventully get into the playoff chase. Given the awful showing of the team in previous seasons, any surge should give Blake Bortles a huge life.
Midseason Update
One can only wonder what the odds on Dak Prescott being the NFL MVP would be, but the same logic which pointed to Romo’s +2000 odds applies to the Prescott’s amazing half-season with the Cowboys. The rookie has the team at 8-1 and atop the NFC standings. While Ezekiel Elliott might be competition for both Rookie of the Year and MVP, the quarterback usually receives the lion’s share of the credit.
Preseason predictions for Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers were off by a wide margin. That’s why betting on NFL futures is so difficult — each NFL season seems almost self-contained, as injuries, team chemistry, and scheduling play such a large role.
