Russian Times, an unofficial mouthpiece of Putin, cites similar betting patterns on PredictIT and broker.com.
UK bookmakers say they continue to see significant wagering that Donald Trump will not finish a 4-year term as US president. British bookies are saying that a new wave of prop bets against Donald Trump have come in since President Trump first fired FBI Director James Comey.
Katie Baylis, a spokeswoman for Betfair, said that the news James Comey might have kept copious notes about his meetings with Trump had caused a new wave of prop bets.
Ms. Baylis said, “Overnight we’ve seen more than [£5,000] bet on Trump to leave before the end of his first term, and we expect to see a lot more bet today, with his odds now shortening from evens into 5/6.”
55% Probability Trump Leaves Office Soon
The 5/6 designation implies a 55% probability that President Trump will leave office before his term ends. Baylis added, “And many punters think it won’t be too long before he departs, with the odds of him leaving this year now into 12/5 from 11/2 — a 27% chance [up] from 16% before the latest allegations.”
The latest spike in betting comes a day after it was learned that Donald Trump gave away intelligence information to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Russian Ambassador Kislyak in a White House visit last month.
While Donald Trump’s seeming instability has not led to a major crisis on the international scene, he has faced no major crisis situations that are not of his own making yet. US presidents face major crises at some point in their administrations, which might bring home to American leaders the leadership crisis in the White House. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s self-destructive streak continues to cause trouble for him and an embattled White House staff.
Paddy Power Donald Trump Bets
Lee Price, a spokesman for Paddy Power, said the interest in a Trump impeachment or resignation surpasses anything their sportsbook has ever seen in presidential politics.
Price said, “Impeachment has been a hugely popular topic ever since Election Day — when it was 16/1, immediately after news of Trump’s victory emerged. By the time of his inauguration, the price was at 10/1.”
Donald Trump’s ascent to the White House has fascinated the world’s bettors, just as it has fascinated the world television and Internet audience. Trump seems to have turned the news from the White House into a kind of reality TV show atmosphere. Late night comedians have gotten a lot of mileage out of the new adminstration, though the laughter, derision, and fascination is mixed with genuine concern, because President Trump controls the world’s deadliest conventional military, as well as the nuclear launch codes.
Betting on Impeachments
Lee Price added, “We’ve been betting on impeachment for all recent U.S. presidents but, even at the height of the Lewinsky scandal, Bill Clinton was only ever 6/1 [14%] to be impeached.”
US Stock Market Takes a Dip
English bettors are not the only ones who take a dim view of Donald Trump’s administration, though. The New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ each saw their worst day of trading in the past 8 months.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.8% of its value and fell to 20,606 on Wednesday. The S&P 500 Index was offer 1.8% at 2,357 by the end of the day. Both represented their worst declines since September 9.
The NASDAQ had an even worse showing. It was down 2.6% at 6,011, marking its worst tumble since June 24 of last year — the day after the Brexit vote. Investors appear to be rattled because the Trump Administration’s troubles make it unlikely that the long-promised corporate tax cut from 35% to 15% will happen this year. Trump continues to slash regulations, which many traders and businessmen consider more important. Most larger corporations take advantage of tax loopholes to pay a 14% corporate tax rate, so the 35% rate decrease affects mainly startups and small businesses.
Comparison between Investment and Sports Betting
Many people have made the comparison between trading stocks and commodities and sports betting. Those people see the two as similar, because each places money on an uncertain outcome, but one which savvy traders can predict. Thus, it is instructive to see that investors and sports bettors alike see Donald Trump’s administration as a sinking ship.
In a broader sense, gamblers should not view their hobby the same as playing the stock market. The New York Stock Exchange goes up over time, usually higher than what you would expect from an increasing number of NYSE listings. Investors might be gambling for real money, but they are doing so in a game which rewards players over time. Except in poker and a few other games (which require skill), gamblers are wagering on a game which has a house edge, meaning are expected to lose money over time. That is a major difference players should not forget.
