One or Both Teams Have Been Involved in 8 of the 13 Highest Over/Under Lines in the Past 10 Years.
The over/under bet on the upcoming game between Baylor and Texas Tech reached a 25-year high (90) on Wednesday. Most of the sportsbook operators say they have never seen the over/under score so high.
The bookmakers say the 90-point over/under would have been regarded as outrageous just five years ago. Now, such totals are seen by many bettors as a sign of the future. The Baylor/Tech contests have gone over the point spread each of the last 5 years, in which the final total has averaged 95.8 point.
Offensive Prowess for Texas Tech and Baylor
This season in particular, Texas Tech and Baylor have posted soaring totals. The 5th-rated Baylor Bears have posted a national high of 64.0 points per game.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders, though they are unrated, are 3rd in the nation at scoring offense with a 53.8 total. Given the teams average 117 points a game combined, an over/under of 90 seems almost conservative.
Over/Under of 100 Is Possible
In fact, Ed Salmons, who serves as the head football oddsmaker for the Westgate Superbook, said he would not be surprised to see an over/under of 100 reached in the near-future. With the proliferation of scoring in NCAA football, logic might dictate such a betting line.
Despite the Wednesday high of 90, the totals were down to 89 at most Las Vegas sportsbooks by Thursday. Experts say the number could dip all the way back to its original 88 by kickoff on Saturday. Tech’s starting quarterback, Pat Mahomes, is questionable with an injured knee, so he might not play.
Only 13 Games with 80 or More Over/Under
The showdown between Tech and Baylor is a perfect storm. BetLabsSports.com says there have been 13 games since 2008 in which the over/under has reached 80 or higher. Most of those games have been in the past 4 seasons, and most of them (8) have featured either Baylor or Tech Tech.
The betting line on the game is notable, because most of the old-timers say they have never seen a betting line so high. Art Manteris, a 40-year veteran of the sports betting industry and an oddsmaker for the Station Casinos, said, “It’s the highest total ever, to my knowledge, and I’ve been booking totals forever.”
Previous Games in 2015
Phil Steele, an ESPN college football insider with a knowledge of sportsbook trends, said the current betting lines are a new trend in college football. Steele said, “The tempo just started a few years ago. If you would have thrown out a total of 75 in 2010, I would think people would have thought that to be outrageous.”
Oddsmakers have good reason to be setting lines so high, though. Games between high-powered offenses are changing the way NCAA games are played. Experts say several factors affect the way lines are set these days. Pro-style offenses have opened the game up, especially in the Big 12, which isn’t known for the stout defenses seen in the SEC and Big Ten. Also, the institution of an open-ended overtime period occasionally boosts point totals. The result seems to be a heavy emphasis on scoring.
The previous high this season was last week’s game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Red Raiders, which set at 83.5. That game ended with a 55-52 TCU win, which was also a big win for anyone who bet the over proposition.
Previous Games before 2015
The Tech and Baylor game in 2013 had a betting line of 84. The game ended with a Baylor 63-34 victory, once again ending with a win for the “over” gamblers. Baylor had two games in the 2012 season (OSU, WVU) in which the over/under was 85 or higher.
In the Oklahoma State game, the teams only scored 75 points, failing to reach the over/under of 88. In the West Virginia game, WVU scored 70 points to Baylor’s 63 points, for a whopping total of 133.
The high scoring game is going to take place in a world class arena for such a spectacle. Instead of playing in Lubbock or Waco, the Bears and Red Raiders are meeting at 2:30 on Saturday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, the home of the Dallas Cowboys. The massive billion-dollar sports stadium will have a fast track and a huge crowd on hand to see the game. The fact neither team should have a distinct homefield advantage should only add to the game’s allure and high scoring.
