Trump’s and Sanders’ success as a nationalist and socialist (respectively) shows the moderate US middle class no longer dominates American politics.
This political season, John Stossel and Maxim Lott have been tracking the odds each U.S. political candidate has of winning their party’s nomination, as well as as the U.S. presidency itself. Their site, ElectionBettingOdds.com, contains previews of the upcoming votes, odds from Betfair, and a discussion of why betting exchanges beat the national polls when it comes to predicting elections.
Donald Trump’s Odds
In the latest update, Donald Trump’s odds of winning the Republican nomination have declined precipitously. In just the last week, Trump’s numbers have gone down 16.8%. Meanwhile, Sen. Ted Cruz’s odds of attaining the Republican nomination have increased 13.3%.
Rep. Paul Ryan, the Republican Speaker of the House who is not running for the nomination, saw his odds increase 2.8%. Gov. John Kasich of Ohio had his odds of winning the nomination increase to 0.2%, up to 8.5%.
Overall, Donald Trump is given a 49.6% chance of securing the Republican nomination. Ted Cruz sits at 26%, while John Kasich remains at 8.5%, Paul Ryan is at 5.6%, and former Gov. Mitt Romney is at 1.1% (up from 0.5%).
Donald Trump’s Worst Week
The numbers reflect the bad week of publicity Donald Trump had, after gaffs on women’s issues. After the previous week, in which he attacked Ted Cruz’s wife in what were considered misogynist tones, Donald Trump answered an abortion question from MSNBC host Chris Matthews in a way that inspired widespread criticism from women’s groups and the political Left. In subsequent days, his campaign’s attempts to clarify angered voters on the Right.
Meanwhile, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s odds of winning the Democrat Party’s nomination showed a slight dip from 87.7% a week ago down to 85.8% this week. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont picked up the same 1.9% bump, going from 10.3% to 12.2% in the past week. Vice President Joe Biden remained steady at 1.9%.
Wisconsin Victory for Bernie Sanders
The slight decline in Hillary Clinton’s odds appear to be a result of Bernie Sanders’ latest surge at the polls. With his victory in Wisconsin on Tuesday night, Sanders has won 7 of the last 8 votes in the Democratic nominating process.
Most of those wins were predictable, so responses from the Democrats have been muted. The consensus is Hillary Clinton has a lock on the nomination, due to her control of superdelegates. Also, the number of caucuses (Bernie’s specialty) is limited beyond this point, while the vote next goes to Hillary’s home state of New York.
Hillary’s Lost 7 of 8 Votes
The loss of so many primaries and caucuses is some cause of concern, though. The Clinton campaign has signaled it would once again go on the attack against Sen. Sanders, meaning Clinton sees the need to shore up her base once more. Every time she begins to look ahead to the general election, Hillary Clinton is forced to deal with political realities in her own party.
Despite the new tack by the campaign, most people predict Hillary Clinton will win her home state of New York, which once elected her to represent them as the state’s senator. Bernie Sanders was born in Brooklyn and remains a regional figure, as he’s been the senator from nearby Vermont for some time.
Bernie Sanders: A Small Path to Victory
If he were to pull off the upset in New York State, Sen. Sanders might reach a psychological turning point for the superdelegates in the party. While pledged delegates (won through voting) are solid supporters of a candidate, superdelegates are rank-and-file party elders whose support is based on a combination of calculation, sentiment, and loyalty. If New York went for Sanders after a string of successes, it would create the impression that voters were against Clinton. It might cause a wave of defections among the superdelegate class.
Most see that as an outside possibility, though. Hillary Clinton retains a 63.9% chance of winning the presidency, according to Election Betting Odds. Donald Trump remains in second place with a 12.3% chance, while Bernie Sanders is nearby in 3rd place with an 8.1% chance. Ted Cruz sits at 5.7% and John Kasich at 3.3%.
Rancor among the GOP
Gamblers on Betfair see the division in the Republican Party as the key factor in the 2016 election cycle. Donald Trump poses a no-win situation for the GOP elite, if he continues to lead the delegate count going into the Cleveland convention. If he is still leading in delegates (which is likely), but does not have the 51% to win the nomination, then a contested convention will occur.
If no one wins on the first ballot, then a brokered convention occurs. In this scenario, Trump’s chances of winning the nomination decline and the rank-and-file party members are left to negotiate a consensus candidate. That might be Trump, Cruz, Kasich, or a Republican who did not run for president (like Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney).
If Donald Trump wins the nomination, the Republicans might not support his candidacy, fearing his extremist views will hurt GOP candidates down the ballot — and destroy paint them as the party of bigotry in the long run. But if Trump does not get the nomination, he might run an insurgency campaign as an Independent, thus ruining their chances of securing the presidency.
Primary Voter Turnout
Republicans will argue that their primaries have drawn several million more voters than the Democrats as a sign they will have a higher voter turnout in the November election.
The problem with that logic is recent history suggests high voter turnout in the nomination process does not translate to turnout in the fall election. In 2000, the Republicans has 3.5 million more voters in the primary season, but Al Gore received more votes than George W. Bush in the general election. Independents were drawn to the GOP election, because there was less certainty on who would win. The same thing could be happening in 2016.
