The Patriots are 16 point favorites over the Texans, despite missing star tight end Rob Gronkowski.
The New England Patriots are the biggest playoff favorite in the past 19 NFL seasons. Their 16-point advantage among most sportsbooks makes the Patriots one of the biggest favorites over the past 40 years of the NFL playoffs.
Once the Houston Texans beat a depleted Oakland Raiders team in a AFC Wild Card playoff game, the Patriots opened as a 14.5 favorite at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Gamblers soon bet on the Patriots enough that they were a 16-point favorite.
2016 New England Patriots
The 14-2 Patriots look to be fielding one of their strongest teams in years. That is impressive, since the team won the Super Bowl 2 seasons ago. The franchise overcame Tom Brady’s 4-game suspension over Deflategate to post a 3-1 record to start the season. Once Brady returned, the team has posted a 11-1 record.
Houston Texans: #1 NFL Defense
The Houston Texans have overcome their own difficulties. Despite losing All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt for the season after Week 1, the team has the NFL’s #1 defense behind the stellar pass rushing of Jadaveon Clowney and Whitney Merciless. The Texans’ offense has struggled, as Coach Bill O’Brien has alternated Brock Osweiler and Tom Savage at quarterback.
Brock Osweiler, who was signed to a $72 million contract in the offseason, has been a disappointment. He’ll start this weekend after leading the Texans to a victory of the Oakland Raiders, who were without their start quarterback, Derek Carr, and his backup, Matt McGloin. Faced with starting a rookie, Connor Cook, who had never started an NFL game, the Raiders offense predictably floundered much of the game.
Texans’ Underwhelming Playoff Win
Thus, the Texans do not get much credit for beating a young Raiders franchise which had bad luck late in the season, after vaulting to a 12-2 record before their quarterback went down. The Texans’ underdog status is earned, because the team lost to the New England Patriots in Week 3 by a 27-0 margin. The Patriots were led by their own rookie 3rd stringer, Jacoby Brissett, in that blowout.
1998 Vikings-Cardinals Game
The last time a team was favored by this much was in 1998, when the 15-1 Minnesota Vikings took on the Arizona Cardinals, who had won a wild card game the week previously. The Vikings won that game 41-21, but went on to lose in an upset in the NFC Championship Game the next week.
The 1994 San Francisco 49ers, which was full of stars like Steve Young, Jerry Rice, and Deion Sanders, was a 17.5-point favorite over the Chicago Bears in the divisional round of the playoffs. In the Super Bowl versus the San Diego Chargers that same year, the Niners were an 18-point favorite. They won both games by wide margins.
Jets-Colts Super Bowl
In Super Bowl III, the Joe Namath-led New York Jets were 18-point underdogs to the Baltimore Colts, coached by Don Shula and sporting Johnny Unitas as a backup quarterback. The Colts were the representatives of the NFL, an older league which had started in the 1920s. The Jets were the representatives of the AFL, a league founded only in 1960 and widely regarded as inferior.
The Jets defeat of the Colts in that game was a key moment in forcing a merger between the two leagues. After the AFL’s Kansas City Chiefs defeated the NFL’s Minnesota Vikings the next year to prove the AFL’s victory was not a fluke, the AFL merged into the NFL.
Patriots-Texans at the Major Sportsbooks
At some Las Vegas sportsbooks, the Patriots’ total is equaling or surpassing those totals at present. At the MGM Resorts’ sportsbooks, the odds have climbed to 17 points. William Hill’s Nevada sportsbook has the Patriots at +1800, meaning you would have to wager $1800 just to win $100.
Despite the long odds, bettors continue to wager on the Patriots. Jason Simbal, VP of Risk at CG Technology, said Sunday night his sportsbook had taken bets almost exclusively on the Patriots. Simbal said, “We’ve taken almost $19,000 on New England. And $196 on Houston.”
The game hardly seems to have gotten much attention at CG Technology.
NFL Betting Lines
On the other hand, the three other games in the NFL’s Divisional Playoffs are stellar matchups. In each case, the home team takes on a more established or perennial playoff contender. The Pittsburgh Steelers are road favorites with a -1 spread against the Kansas City Chiefs, who won the AFC West and received a bye after a late Oakland Raiders collapse this season.
The Seattle Seahawks are 4-point underdogs on the road this week, as they visit the #2 seed Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have the NFL’s best scoring offense this season, behind the work of quarterback Matt Ryan, wide receiver Julio Jones, and running back Devonta Freeman. The Seahawks won the NFC two of the last three seasons and come off an impressive defeat of the Detroit Lions.
The Dallas Cowboys are 4.5-point favorites at home against the Green Bay Packers. The Packers looked to face a tough New York Giants team last week, but won going away with a 38-13 beatdown. The Packers might be without Jordy Nelson, who spent the night in the hospital with two fractured ribs. The Cowboys are led by two rookies standouts, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, so many gamblers are likely to bet against a rookie-led favorite, because rookie quarterbacks have only covered 35% of the time in the past 34 years.
