The Dallas Cowboys Gave up a 23-Point Lead to Lose 37-36 to the Packers in 2013
The betting lines on three of the four 2015 NFL Division Playoff games have remained stable this week. The fourth betting line stayed at the same point spread for most of the week, but moved when a key injury was revealed by one of the teams.
The lines in the Patriots/Ravens, Broncos/Colts, and Seahawks/Panthers games have been solid all week. Perhaps not incidentally, the home teams are 7+ point favorites in all of those games.
Cowboys/Packers Game: Boys a Betting Man’s Favorite
In the contest between the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers, the line opened with the Cheeseheads 6.5 point favorites. When it was announced that Aaron Rodgers was playing iwth a slight tear in his calf, the line moved in Dallas’s favor. Now, the Packers are 5.5 point favorites.
Green Bay still has several factors in its favor. First is Lambeau Field, which has received enough snow that the team asked for volunteers to dig out the field. As a cold weather team used to such chills, the Packers could have a distinct advantage. The Cowboys appear to be built for road success, as they are 8-0 on the road in 2014-15 and they have a running attack among the best in the league.
The second advantage is a week’s rest, which is one of the reasons all the home teams are such favorites. The Pack got a week of rest, while the Boys had a hard-fought battle with Detroit. That hasn’t mattered that much in recent years, as the Giants, Packers, and Ravens have gone through the wild card route to win the Super Bowl. The Packers also have Aaron Rodgers, but the last time we saw Rodgers play, he was hobbled with the calf tear. His arm is the most dangerous part of his game, but AR’s mobility is part of the package.
A Game of Match-Ups
The game comes down to how units match up. Aaron Rodgers versus the Cowboys pass rush and secondary should be a huge advantage for Green Bay. The Cowboys should be able to run a lot better against the Cheeseheads than against the Lions. If Demarco Murray runs for 100+ yards, they might keep Rodgers off the field long enough to grit out a win in the cold. Remember that Tony Romo is from Wisconsin, so the weather shouldn’t be a shock to him. The over/under is 52.5, which is low for two high-powered offenses. Both are likely to try running the ball a lot in the bad weather, so that might shorten the game.
Seahawks/Panthers Odds: No Contest
The Carolina Panthers are getting 11.5 points against the Seattle Seahawks. This is the biggest mismatch of the weekend. Some would argue the Panthers shouldn’t have been in the playoffs, as they came into the postseason with a losing 7-8-1 record. They won the wild card game by default, because the Arizona Cardinals were down to their 4th-string quarterback.
Cam Newton and the offense did not look good, though the defense held the Cards to the lowest yard total in the history of the playoffs. But the Panthers were also two interceptions at the goal line away from losing that game, despite the great game by the defense.
The Seahawks, on the other hand, are the defending Super Bowl champs and the #1 seed in the NFC. No one expects the Panthers to compete in this game. The over/under on the Seahawks/Panthers game is 39.5.
Ravens/Patriots Odds: Baltimore Could Pull the Upset
The Baltimore Ravens are 7-point underdogs on the road in Foxborough against the New England Patriots. Tom Brady and the Pats looked solid all year, riding a good passing attack and an improved defense to the #1 seed in the AFC. They get the #6 seeded Ravens, but they might have preferred a different matchup.
The Ravens are not afraid to play in New England, and not intimidated by the Patriots’ reputation. Two years ago en route to their Super Bowl win, the Ravens traveled to Foxborough to upset the Patriots. The two teams have played a lot of postseason football against one another, and the Ravens are a veteran team whose seen it all. While the Pats had a better team all year, don’t be surprised to see the Ravens pull an upset.
The over/under on this game is 47.5.
Broncos/Colts Bets: Manning Should Beat Old Team
In the Denver/Indianapolis match-up, it’s Peyton Manning versus his old team: the Colts. It’s Manning versus his successor in Indie, Andrew Luck. Once again, the Broncos are a solid 7-point favorite in this game. Manning has a solid receiving corps and C.J. Anderson coming on as a running threat. The
