Donald Trump Is Likely to Be a Target for All 9 Opponents in the Debate on Thursday Night
With the first Republican presidential debate about to happen, the sportsbooks have updated their odds on who is likeliest to win the GOP nomination. The latest odds reflect average prop bets on Sportsbook AG, a leading international gaming site. The odds are up-to-date, so they should reflect an accurate idea of the Republican field’s various chances of winning.
As for the debates on August 6, the field is so large that two different debate groups have been selected: one for the afternoon and one for the night session.
The early debate for the 7 candidates with the lowest polls numbers include former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorino, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore, former New York Gov. George E. Pataki, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham.
The prime time debate for the 10 candidates with the highest aggregate poll numbers includes CEO and reality TV star Donald Trump, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, former Arkansas Governor and Fox News Host Mike Huckabee, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, and Ohio Governor John Kasich.
Jeb Bush +160
The handicappers have installed Jeb Bush as the odds-on favorite with a +160 moneyline bet. If you wagered $100, you would receive $160 on winning the bet. Jeb Bush is a sensible choice by Sportsbook AG.
Yes, when his father and his brother left office, both were seen as failed presidents who cared more about foreign wars than the common people. Yes, the Bush Family is seen as political mediocrities for that reason, and Republicans have tried for the past 6 years to pretend George W. Bush was never president. But in the current political climate, Jeb Bush seems like a stable, moderate candidate. Everyone agrees he seemed to have more sense than his brother ever did, whether that’s true or not.
Scott Walker +400
Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin is a bit of a surprise at +400. Walker became a hero to conservatives when he took on teachers unions in his home state. He became a villain to liberals for the same reason. In fact, Scott Walker faced a recall election, which is a sign of huge discontent, because those are not easy to arrange.
Of course, Gov. Scott Walker is the only sitting governor to ever win a recall election. Republicans take that as a sign the recall movement was illegitimate, so he is a hero with a history of beating the Democrats at what GOP voters see as dirty tactics.
Marco Rubio +500
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida is described as the “Crown Prince of the Tea Party”. He is a handsome Cuban-American with a history as a strong conservative. Americans who do not like the Tea Party see Sen. Rubio belonging to the political fringe, though. That helps him in the nomination process, but hurts him the general election.
Donald Trump +600
Donald Trump is sitting at 24% among Republican voters in one recent poll. That makes Trump the seeming frontrunner to win the nomination. Beware of the frontrunner in the early stages of the primaries. Everyone tries to make a name for themselves by taking on the frontrunner. Everyone sees the leader as the target they must stop, so everyone in these debates will gang up on Donald Trump.
Frankly, this is why the GOP debate on August 6 is likely to have a huge TV audience: it’s a loose cannon being fired upon from 9 different directions. As a corporate executive, Donald Trump is not used to facing criticism the way a politician does. If he has opposition, it’s from a corporate rival, and he tries to run them over. So the chances Donald Trump flips his lid are high.
As for the nomination process, Sportsbook AG has Scott Walker ahead of Donald Trump, which should tell you what level-headed evaluators think of Trump’s chances. The Republican Establishment is against Donald Trump, which is one reason lower income Republicans feel like they have something in common with a billionaire with a penchant for arrogant remarks. But the Establishment in a party usually gets its way, so don’t expect Donald Trump to win the nomination.
Full Republican Nomination Odds
Here are the remaining odds. It’s a huge field of candidates. Everyone beyond Donald Trump has +1000 or lower odds. I personally think some of the candidates below have a real chance to secure a nomination, if they do well in the debates and somehow stand out without seeming crazy. There’s still plenty of time for someone to gain traction.
Ben Carson +1000
Chris Christie +1200
Ted Cruz +1200
Rand Paul +1500
Rick Perry +3000
Rick Santorum +3500
Carly Fiorino +4500
Bobby Jindal +5000
The key for any of these candidates is to seem likable (to Republicans), but also make an impression on the voters. Ben Carson has an amazing story, but his politics are radical even by the current GOP standards. Chris Christie is a moderate, but he has scandals in his past and he’s got a northwestern persona, which doesn’t play well with Americans west of Philadelphia and south of Baltimore. Also, he just doesn’t look presidential.
Ted Cruz looks like Bill Murray, but he’s seen as a radical Texan with Tea Party ties. Rand Paul’s father helped found the Tea Party. The former dentist was not in politics before 2011, which helps him. He’s likable and makes rational points for some traditional conservative ideas, but he’s also tainted in the General Election by Tea Party credentials. Also, he recently was destroying the tax code with a chainsaw in a YouTube ad, which isn’t likely to win moderate votes.
More Presidential Options
Rick Perry was the governor of Texas for 14 years, but he is seen as a joke by most of the country. Rick Santorum won the 2012 Iowa Caucus, so he should have a nice springboard in 2016. He comes across as earnest, but hasn’t won an election in a long time. Carly Fiorino is seen as a candidate to counter the Hillary Factor, but it’s the Republicans, and they are not likely to nominate a female for president. Bobby Jindal is smart and articulute. When he first appeared on CSPAN, many moderates and independents liked the Governor of Louisiana, but he has steadily moved to the Right over the years, and thus alienated many voters he would need to be a viable candidate.
Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and John Kasich are not listed. Romney is rumored to be mulling over his options. Huckabee had a Fox News show for years and has zero likability among moderates, while John Kasich is seen as a stable and serious candidate given no chance by the current state of the GOP.
US Political Prop Bets
Those interested in the political prop bets on the site have three options: who wins the GOP nomination, who wins the US presidential election, and which party wins. I normally would say anyone betting the +5000 on “any other political party” is insane, but a possible scenario does exist.
Donald Trump As Independent?
Donald Trump has tried to hold the Republican Party (or its voters) hostage by claiming he might run as a third-party candidate, if he fails to win the GOP nomination. If that happened, he would run as an Independent, Tea Party, or Reform candidate and would qualify for that bet.
Of course, Donald Trump is not threatening to run and win. He is threatening to run, split the conservative vote, and throw the election to the Democrats. If you believe the American people are crazy enough–or disappointed enough with the Democrats AND Republicans–to elect Donald Trump, then you might take that +5000 wager.
As an American, I cannot see that happening, because the liberals and moderates in the country see Donald Trump as a sideshow act. It’s one thing to attract 10 million viewers in a country of 300 million-plus people. It’s another thing to receive 24% of a party’s votes early in the election cycle when no one has to make hard decisions about winning versus sentiment. It is another thing to convince a plurality of 300 million people who overwhelmingly don’t watch your show and overwhelmingly think you’re a narcissist to vote for you.
