Carl Icahn says he will not invest $100 million in Trump Taj Mahal if North Jersey casinos are licensed, but that proposition will be decided in the most unpredictable election in decades.
The State of New Jersey approved an agreement which would allow the Tropicana’s management to manage the Trump Taj Mahal. Because both Atlantic City casinos are owned by Carl Icahn, gaming regulators saw no problem having the two casinos managed by the same personnel. Such an arrangement would allow managers with experience turning around an Atlantic City casino take over the job, while also allowing Carl Icahn’s casino company, Trump Entertainment Resorts, to save money on executive salaries.
Tropicana announced it would invest $15 million in much-needed renovations to the Trump Taj Mahal. In a statement, the casino management said it was addressing “pressing needs” with the $15 million outlay. Included in the repairs were basic maintenance concerns, such as roof issues and hotel room repair. Up to 150 guest rooms cannot be used at the present, due to lack of upkeep.
No $100 Million Renovation
The Tropicana repairs are being made in lieu of the long-considered $100 million renovation which Carl Icahn once said he would make to the casino. In recent months, the new owner of the Trump Taj Mahal has backed away from those remarks, saying he would not invest that kind of money in the casino if North Jersey casinos were approved. Many believe a set of North Jersey casinos would further wreck the gambler traffic to Atlantic City, so renovations might not be worth the cost.
In defending his decision not to invest a hundred million in the Trump Taj Mahal, Carl Icahn stated he needed to be “judicious”. In many ways, the announced repairs for the Trump Taj Mahal is the big news from the Tropicana announcement. Such a decision might quell criticism of Carl Icahn, while addressing much-needed concerns. Many believed Carl Icahn would choose first-rank management for the former Donald Trump property, because he had turned around the Tropicana Casino in five years time.
Labor Issues to Overcome
Carl Icahn still has many obstacles to overcome, including lingering labor issues. The UNITE Here workers union is engaged in a long legal and public relations battle with the New York City activist investor. For his part, Carl Icahn has been highly critical of the union’s leaders. The dispute is about the health and retirement benefits paid to the workers.
November Referendum
New Jersey voters still have their say in the North Jersey casino issue, anyway. Those $100 million in investments might still be in the offing, depending on what happens on November 2. The 2016 elections are likely to be among the most unpredictable in decades, given the volatility at the top of the tickets.
The New Jersey vote is likely to be like many across the nation: particularly hard to predict this year.
Republican and Democratic National Politics
Donald Trump is still the front-runner to win the GOP nomination for the U.S. presidential election, but it is not a shoo-in. A growing class of Republican insiders believe Sen. Ted Cruz might have a strategy to win the Republican nomination in a contested convention. If Donald Trump does not get to the magic number or 1,237 before the convention in Cleveland, then it becomes a contested convention. Most Trump voters would be bound to vote for the New York developer on the 1st ballot.
If Donald Trump does not win the nomination on that 1st ballot, then he likely would not win the nomination. Hundreds of delegates would be free to vote their conscience (or self-interest). At that point, the Republicans would have a brokered convention, in which back-room deals and party loyalties might win out. There is a suspicion that many of the Trump delegates are actually Ted Cruz partisans. He would have the votes to either win the nomination outright or overtake Donald Trump, thus giving him the momentum to woo enough delegates to win on the 3rd ballot.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is the presumptive nominee for the Democrats, despite losing 7 of 8 contests to Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. If Sanders somehow won New York State in next Tuesday’s vote, it might produce the kind of sea change that would cause hundreds of superdelegates to change their vote from Hillary to Bernie. The rules allow superdelegates — party elders — to change their votes right up until election.
Unpredictable November Dynamics
Either way, the dissension in the Republican Party is likely to remain all the way into November. Few can see how Cruz supporters could get behind Donald Trump — and certainly can’t see how Trump supporters could get behind anyone but their man. The Democrats will run either an ultimate insider in an election year where voters dislike Washington insiders, or they’ll run a socialist in a United States which is still center-right in its attitudes.
The consensus is either Hillary Clinton beats a split Republican Party in a close contest, or Donald Trump’s high negatives among women, Hispanics, and African-American will cause a landslide victory for the Democrats. In that election, no one can say how down-ballot candidates are going to do. They certainly cannot say how referendums and other initiatives are likely to go. Voter turnout should be high, so anything could happen.
